NBA Draft Lottery Simulator

By Christopher Frangolini

The 2016 NBA Draft Lottery takes place a little less than a week from today. 14 ping pong balls can determine the direction the Boston Celtics take in the offseason.

There are 30 NBA teams, 16 of which made the playoffs. The other 14 are entered into the lottery to determine draft picks 1-14. For fairness and to avoid teams tanking, the team with the worst overall record has the best odds, but is not guaranteed to have the number one overall pick.

So at Beantown Blitz, we thought it would be fun to simulate the lottery and try to get an accurate drawing, thanks to ESPN‘s simulator.

Worst records:

Team Record Combinations % chance at 1st pick
Philadelphia 10-72 250 25.00%
LA Lakers 17-65 199 19.90%
Brooklyn (To Boston) 21-61 156 15.60%
Phoenix 23-59 119 11.90%
Minnesota 29-53 88 8.80%
New Orleans 30-52 63 6.30%
New York (To Denver or Toronto) 32-50 43 4.30%
Sacramento 33-49 19 1.90%
Denver 33-49 19 1.90%
Milwaukee 33-49 18 1.80%
Orlando 35-47 8 0.80%
Utah 40-42 7 0.70%
Washington 41-41 6 0.60%
Chicago 42-40 5 0.50%

Chart courtesy: The Boston Globe

The follow results were simulated once for accuracy.

Screen Shot 2016-05-11 at 12.38.26 PM
ESPN’s NBA Draft Simulator.

The Celtics (from Brooklyn), who own the third-best odds (15.60% chance to land first pick), landed at the five spot. The simulator has Danny Ainge and the Celtics taking Buddy Hield, which is a great pick if he lasts that long on the board, but I can see the Celtics trading out.

The NBA draft lottery simulator will be a series of simulations Beantown Blitz will conduct leading up to the lottery.


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